Download e-book for iPad: Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to by Uffe B. Kjærulff, Anders L. Madsen

By Uffe B. Kjærulff, Anders L. Madsen

ISBN-10: 1461451035

ISBN-13: 9781461451037

ISBN-10: 1461451043

ISBN-13: 9781461451044

Bayesian Networks and impression Diagrams: A consultant to building and research, moment Edition, offers a complete advisor for practitioners who desire to comprehend, build, and study clever platforms for choice aid in response to probabilistic networks. This re-creation includes six new sections, as well as fully-updated examples, tables, figures, and a revised appendix. meant basically for practitioners, this e-book doesn't require refined mathematical talents or deep knowing of the underlying conception and strategies nor does it speak about replacement applied sciences for reasoning lower than uncertainty. the speculation and strategies awarded are illustrated via greater than a hundred and forty examples, and routines are incorporated for the reader to envision his or her point of realizing. The options and techniques offered for wisdom elicitation, version building and verification, modeling ideas and tips, studying versions from facts, and analyses of versions have all been built and sophisticated at the foundation of various classes that the authors have held for practitioners world wide.

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Bayesian Networks and impression Diagrams: A advisor to development and research, moment variation, presents a entire advisor for practitioners who desire to comprehend, build, and research clever platforms for choice help in keeping with probabilistic networks. This re-creation comprises six new sections, as well as fully-updated examples, tables, figures, and a revised appendix.

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Additional info for Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis

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Y | X /. 4) where X 0 is a subset of the set of variables X . X / is a probability distribution over X . 5) X 3 Note that the two interpretations are consistent. See Sect. 3 on page 50 for details on marginalization. Y /. A uniform potential, for example, 1Y , is called a vacuous potential. Intuitively, a vacuous potential can be thought of as a non-informative (or superfluous) potential. We shall be using the notion of potentials extensively in Chaps. 4 and 5, but for now, we will just give a couple of simple examples illustrating the usefulness of this notion.

Without replacement, the color of the second ball depends on the color of the first ball. 2nd-is-blue| 1st-was-red/ D D . 1st-was-red/ D 5 1 1 D , 9 5 9 respectively. 2 Probability Distributions for Variables Discrete probabilistic networks are defined over a (finite) set of variables, each of which represents a finite set of exhaustive and mutually exclusive states (or events); see Sect. 2 on page 20. , over exhaustive sets of mutually exclusive events) play a very central role in probabilistic networks.

For example, in the “Burglary or Earthquake” example on page 25 one might put a directed link from W (Watson calls) to A (Alarm) because the fact that Dr. Watson makes a phone call to Mr. Holmes “points to” the fact that 32 2 Networks W A B R • • • • • W : Watson calls A: Alarm B: Burglary R: Radio news E: Earthquake E Fig. 4 on page 25, where the links are directed from effects to causes, leading to faulty statements of (conditional) dependence and independence Mr. Holmes’ alarm has gone off. ” Using this faulty modeling approach, the “Burglary or Earthquake” model in Fig.

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Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis by Uffe B. Kjærulff, Anders L. Madsen


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